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Did the UN say global warming will exceed 1.5°C within a few years?

Published Sep 2, 2026

Verdict

True

Verification confidenceHigh

Explanation

Yes. The United Nations Environment Programme says long-term global warming is likely to cross 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next few years.

UNEP's Limiting Overshoot report says the most optimistic scenario would still produce a peak of about 1.8°C if existing climate pledges are fully implemented. Reuters independently reported the projected breach and the report's principal findings.

This is a projection about sustained global warming, not merely a single unusually hot year. UNEP says returning below 1.5°C remains possible but highly uncertain and would require rapid emissions reductions alongside carefully governed carbon removal.

Key takeaway

The 1.5°C threshold is likely to be exceeded, but the height and duration of the overshoot still depend on future action.

Evidence

UNEP projects that warming will cross 1.5°C

United Nations Environment Programme

Supports the claim

UNEP says global temperature rise is likely to cross 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next few years.

Based on: United Nations Environment Programme

The most optimistic scenario peaks near 1.8°C

United Nations Environment Programme

Provides context

The report estimates that warming would peak at about 1.8°C even if existing national climate pledges were fully implemented.

Based on: United Nations Environment Programme

Independent reporting confirms the UN projection

Reuters

Supports the claim

Reuters independently reports UNEP's conclusion that warming will exceed 1.5°C within a few years and that returning below it remains possible but highly uncertain.

Based on: Reuters